Staff Reports
The official monsoon season in New Mexico runs every year from June 15 through Sept. 30.
A monsoon is a large-scale, seasonal shift in prevailing winds that carries heavy moisture, leading to a distinct rainy season. The word “monsoon” originates from the Arabic term “mausim,” which means “season.” The season is vital to the region, providing 30 to 60% of New Mexico’s total annual precipitation.
Forecasters are predicting a highly active and promising season with near-to-above-normal precipitation across the majority of the state.
While the season officially kicks off mid-June, the heaviest and most consistent rainfall occurs during July and August. The pattern typically establishes itself in early July.
Meteorologists point to several climatic factors favoring a wetter-than-average season.
New Mexico experienced an exceptionally dry winter. Historically, low winter snowpacks correlate strongly with early-onset, highly active summer monsoons.
Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of California are currently well above normal. This provides a potent thermal energy source to boost moisture transport into the Southwest.
And finally, a transition toward an El Niño pattern is underway. This is expected to intensify tropical storm activity in the eastern Pacific later in the season, occasionally funneling leftover tropical moisture directly into New Mexico for widespread heavy rain.
According to the National Weather Service, the monsoon is one of New Mexico’s most dangerous weather periods due to sudden, severe hazards, such as:
Flash Floods. Intense downpours can instantly flood dry creek beds, streets, and arroyos. Burn scars from past wildfires are especially vulnerable to catastrophic mud and debris flows.
Extreme heat. Dry spells between storms often cause intense summer heatwaves.
Downburst winds and dust. Searing thunderstorm downdrafts can trigger blinding dust storms (haboobs) and damaging wind gusts exceeding 60-80 mph.
Frequent lightning. Lighting strikes pose severe risks to hikers and cause dry wildfire ignitions before wetting rains fully saturate the ground.
ESSENTIAL SAFETY TIPS
Turn around, don’t drown. Never drive or walk through flooded roadways or arroyos. Flash floods can travel for miles downstream even if it is sunny in the immediate area.
Monitor local updates. Track regional alerts via the National Weather Service Albuquerque or local news stations to monitor active storm trackers.
Pull over for dust. If caught in a dust storm while driving, pull completely off the pavement, turn off your lights, and take your foot off the brake so other drivers do not follow you.
Watch the road. The first few minutes of rain mix with accumulated road oils, making asphalt exceptionally slick. Slow down immediately during cloudburst.
