By Molly Ann Howell
Managing Editor
New Mexico and nine other Western states broke a 131-year record for the warmest November-through-January period. This winter, temperatures across much of the southern Rockies ran 4 to 6 degrees above normal. When storms arrived, rain fell at elevations that historically received snow; these rain-on-snow events can accelerate snowmelt.
The 2024-2025 winter set the record for the driest in New Mexico’s history, producing the lowest statewide snowpack ever recorded. The 2025-26 season currently follows a similar trajectory.
Snowpack—the seasonal accumulation of layered snow in mountainous areas—remains frozen for months and acts as a natural water reservoir. It slowly releases water into rivers and aquifers during the spring and summer, providing a critical water supply for ecosystems, agriculture and cities.
In a March 2 article on the University of New Mexico’s website, Joe Galewsky, professor and chair of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, attributed these historic conditions to two compounding factors: a La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean and an exceptionally warm atmosphere.
“La Niña pushes the jet stream northward, steering storms into the Pacific Northwest and leaving the Southwest in its dry wake,” he said. “This is a well-established pattern in which La Niña winters have historically brought dry conditions to New Mexico, Arizona and the Four Corners. What’s unusual this time is the warmth.”
With these conditions in mind, McKinley County Fire Chief Tim Berry addressed the McKinley County Commission on March 17 to discuss drought conditions and fire prevention measures.
Berry noted that the county’s drought status has changed little since 2025. Last year, severe drought gripped 92% of the county; this year, that figure has risen to 93%.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 93% of McKinley County is in the D2 (severe) drought zone, while a small portion of the northeast corner remains in the D1 (moderate) zone as of March 12. The monitor is produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Berry attributed the current conditions to winds rising higher earlier this season. While his team has responded to a few fires over the past several weeks, they have not yet encountered a major blaze.
The forecast through May predicts below-average rain and above-average temperatures. Berry told the commission he sees “no change or improvement coming” soon.
“If things hold and we don’t get precipitation by the first of June, I’ll be back to give restrictions on fireworks,” Berry said.
He plans to contact fireworks vendors regarding which products they can sell if dry conditions trigger a formal ban. For now, McKinley County Fire and Rescue implemented Stage 1 fire restrictions shortly after Berry’s presentation.
For more information on the restrictions, call (505) 863-3830.
Stage 1 Fire Restrictions: What You Need to Know
Prohibited: Open fires, charcoal, and briquettes.
Allowed: Campfires only within permanent steel or stone fire structures.
Smoking: Permitted only inside vehicles, for ceremonial use, or in cleared areas at least 6 feet in diameter.
